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Tuesday, July 17

17th Jul - EU Open: Another Fed Wait


Here are the morning links, some UBS equity research, usual euro crisis and IMF. For more, see the unusually nice US Close: IMF "bad cops" ECB from last night.


News roundup – Between The Hedges
The 6am Cut London – alphaville / FT
Emerging Markets Headlines – beyondbrics / FT

Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
The Euro Crisis Blog – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
European 10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices

Asia today: A mild hawk bias to RBA minutes; Bernanke up nextSaxo Bank
RBA minutes were the highlight of a slightly busier Asian session today. We also had comments from Japanese FinMin Azumi following USDJPY's slide through 79.0 overnight. Focus now remains on Ben Bernanke's testimony and any hints of more QE.

Market Preview: Bernanke's testimony in focusSaxo Bank
European markets are expected to open higher Tuesday amid speculation that the US Federal Reserve will resort to further easing to spur economic growth in the nation. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will testify before the Senate later today.

Danske DailyDanske Bank (pdf)
Disappointing US retail sales fuelled negative sentiment in the US session…Moody’s cut the rating of 13 Italian banks by one to two notches, as a follow-up on the sovereign downgrade last week… Focus today will be on Fed Chairman Bernanke’s semi-annual testimony on monetary policy to the US senate.

Morning Briefing: A tectonic shift? BNY Mellon
Have the past 12 months seen a change in the pattern of reserve growth in China?

EURO CRISIS
German Justices Already Buckled Under Political Pressure Testosterone Pit

Financial Disintegration In EuropeThe Daily Capitalist
Deutsche Bank’s research note

Current Account Imbalances and the Euro Crisis Part 2EconoMonitor
If the EMU had been designed properly, it would not matter whether some member nations ran current account deficits—much as many US states run current account deficits. Instead, the problem is that the EMU separated the currency from fiscal policy—all the members adopted the Euro, but each was separately responsible for its own fiscal policy. Further, and this is the point to be explored in detail here, each was responsible for dealing with its own banks should a financial crisis hit. (here’s part 1)

UBS European Equity Strategy (registration req.)Longroom / FT (pdf)

USA
A Slap in The Face – Tim Duy’s Fed Watch
The retail sales number should be a slap in the face for any FOMC members sitting on the fence.

US Equity Strategy (registration req.)Longroom / FT (pdf)

ASIA
Hong Kong-listed companies issue profit warnings at a rate close to 2008/09 ASA

China: steel prices hit record lowbeyondbrics / FT

IMF
IMF’s Dismal Outlook Surly Trader
very nice summary (for more IMF, see last night’s post)

IMF Says World Economy Getting Worsebeyondbrics / Forbes