Google Analytics

Sunday, June 17

17th Jun - Weekender: Euro Crisis

I have avoided the obvious temptation to linkfest and follow the Greek election. I believe it does not matter who runs the country. They are broke, and they are unable to pay their debts now and in the future. The only thing a "pro-austerity, pro-EU" government could do is to allow more pretending to take place. And boy, will they all pretend soon that Greece is recovering...

Credit markets are signaling that the probability of some sort of debt mutualization has increased in the past couple of weeks. Alternatively, it is a sign that the end-game is starting. Either way, Germany ends up paying. France is a complete joke. Come on - lowering the retirement age to 60 years? I had high hopes on Hollande - that he would be a closet rationalist. In reality he seems to be just another somewhat crazy left-winger. I am very, very pessimistic on the Europe's outcome. Perhaps the ECB will print, and perhaps this can go on for a year or so... but what about the economy, what about the unemployed, the discontented? Is saving the euro and avoiding bank failures so important? Do they really want to have revolutions in Europe?


Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter or Facebook.  

GENERAL
Stuxnetting the Eurozone's TrustThe Psy-Fi Blog
Markets and investors have long been possessed of a peculiar and unsubstantiatable notion, that the problems of the Eurozone are solvable as soon as people come to their senses and start engaging with financial reality rather than political theatre.

Europe's Dilemma: "Probability Vs Impact"ZH
Deutsche Bank’s scenarios

The Bang! Moment is Here John Mauldin / The Big Picture
The ECB Explained - How to Prevent a Bank Run - The Distant End Game - The Bang! Moment is Here

Europe Will Splinter Regardless of Greek Election Outcome; "France Has At Most Three Months Before Markets Make Their Mark" says German OfficialMish’s

Understanding the European Crisis NowNYT
Nice 5min quickie for “dummies”. Yes, it does discuss TARGET2 as well

Who’s on the Hook for Europe’s Losses, and for How Much?EconoMonitor
What do you get when you mix politics with fundamental principles of economics and accounting?  The answer is politics… What do you get when you mix politics with fundamental principles of economics and accounting?  The answer is politics.

A Strong Case for Monetisation of On-Going Budget Deficits in European Periphery CountriesEconoMonitor

Viable policy options for economic challenges facing euro areaCIGI
Full presentation pdf

The Deleveraging Story of Eurozone Banks Since 2008EconoMonitor
Europe’s banks are raising their capital-asset ratios to meet regulatory requirements. Many fear that this will trigger a contractionary shrinking of assets. This column presents new evidence that much of the ratio increases since 2009 have come fro new capital rather than reducing exposure to the real economy.

Options for EuropeEconbrowser
Discusses TARGET, the futility of internal devalutions, and the need for some to exit

The Merkozy Contagion Diet: Before and After PhotosTF Market Advisors
Two pictures. So much of what the EU has done over the past 2 years has created contagion risk rather than removed it.

This Week in the Euro Area and What to Expect from Greece on June 17 PIIE

Eurepo curve inverts furtherSober Look

Capital flight out of Eurozone seen in foreign deposits at the ECBSober Look

Austerity Kills: How the EuroCrisis is Being Used to Break the Social Contractnaked capitalism

Preventing a Eurozone bank and bond run voxeu.org
Whether the Greek elections this weekend trigger the Eurozone’s first exit or not, the possibility of exit is now firmly on the table. But where are the plans for this highly complex operation that could, if mishandled, cause untold economic damage in Europe and beyond? This column, by a Wolfson Prize finalist and a Nobel Laureate, sketches the core elements of one such plan.

The Eurofiscal Corruption Contest – The Portuguese Entry Golem XIV

Argentina Delink, Default, and Devaluation HistorySquared

A Global Perfect Storm Project Syndicate
Unfortunately, Germany resists all of these key policy measures, as it is fixated on the credit risk to which its taxpayers would be exposed with greater economic, fiscal, and banking integration. As a result, the probability of a eurozone disaster is rising. And, while the cloud over the eurozone may be the largest to burst, it is not the only one threatening the global economy.

Euro area’s situation - analysis, challenges and solutionsBIS (pdf)
Christian Noyer, Governor of the Bank of France and Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Bank for International Settlements, at the Montreal conference: "Demographic shifts - threats or opportunities?", Montreal, 11 June 2012.

The present state of the euro-area sovereign debt crisisBIS (pdf)
Andreas Dombret, Member of the Executive Board of the Deutsche Bundesbank, at the Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Macro Conference, London, 12 June 2012.

Heterogeneity in a monetary union: What have we learned?BIS (pdf)
Peter Praet, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the 14th ECB and its Watchers Conference, Frankfurt am Main, 15 June 2012.

SocGen’s Chaigneau Says Europe Eying Closer UnionBB (mp3)

Dartmouth’s Blanchflower Sees No Orderly Fix for EuropeBB (mp3)

ECB, TARGET2
ECB Ready to Play?Tim Duy’s Fed Watch
Draghi blinks.  After dropping the ball and holding rates steady at the last meeting, ECB President Mario Draghi is signalling he is ready to get back into the game.

Don’t fear Target2. Fear its opponents.Felix Salmon / Reuters

Casino Bar Shall Remain Open: ECB "On Standby" Promising Liquidity for Greek Election Fallout; Bank of England Launches Two New Stimulus Packages Mish’s

GERMANY
On The Brink Of What?Edward Hugh / Fistful of euros
This situation can end in either of two ways. The Euro can disintegrate, or full political union can be put in place. In either case Germany’s debt burden will increase.

Germany’s riskmathbabe
5-year bond yields are going down while credit default (CDS) spreads are going up…I’ve got a short list of things that might be coming into play here besides the risk of a German default.

German sovereign CDS widening is a troubling signCredit Writedowns

Breaking up is hard to do – even for stoic Germany MacroScope / Reuters

Merkel’s options: Pay, inflate, or else… – alphaville / FT
How Charles Dumas of Lombard Street Research gets from this poor performance in Dutch retail sales recently…to a (possible) eurozone endgame.

The Fate of the Monetary Union Lies in Germany’s HandsForeign Affairs
If the eurozone splinters, it will have been an avoidable disaster. After all, the ECB has already gone to great lengths to shore up the continent’s financial system. Now, the choice lies with Germany, which can save the monetary union if it allows for policies aimed at debt relief and growth, not just slashing deficits.

Germany, Greece and the Marshall Plan Free exchange / The Economist
Albrecht Ritschl is professor of economic history at the London School of Economics and a member of the advisory board to the German ministry of economics: Old myths die hard, and the Marshall Plan is one of them.

SPAIN
The T Report: Banco de PonziTF Market Advisors

either the creation of a United States of the Euro Area, or to failure and disintegration of the Euro. There will be no middle path, so the stakes are now very high for all involved.

More pain for Spain Free exchange / The Economist
If the timing was meant to reassure markets over the viability of Spain in the days before the Greek elections, then the content of the IMF’s latest report card on the country may do the opposite.

Deutsche Bank: "The Spanish Recapitalization Is Not Working" - A Market Shock Is RequiredZH

GREECE
Citi's Buiter: Greece will be forced out of the euro regardless of who winsZH
 
Greece — What Matters And What Does NotMark Grant / ZH

What Is Going Through The Heads Of Greek Executives Right NowZH

Greek Election Cheat SheetZH

Dread and Uncertainty Pervade Life in a Diminished Greece NYT

Banks’ Fire Drill for Greece ElectionDealBook / NYT

The Greek Decision Has Grown Spanish BranchesZH

No place to hide if Greece smashes the euroeconomicsuk.com

RBS’s Gallo Sees `Tail Risk’ of More Greek ElectionsBB (mp3)

UBS’s Yu Says Vote in Greece Won’t Deliver ClarityBB (mp3)

Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter or Facebook.