Very, very interesting week coming up. Spain got downgraded just before the weekend. Mayday holidays in Europe. Large dedicated sections on Spain and the austerity debate.You can get update notifications by following MoreLiver on Twitter or Facebook. Contact me with any questions or suggestions!
EURO CRISIS: GENERAL
Economic Data, Political Meetings, Sovereign
Debt Auctions & Elections – Place
du Luxembourg
Nice
collection of schedules for the coming weeks
In 2005, France and the Netherlands were the two countries that voted no to a European constitutional
treaty. It seems they are set to disrupt again the European conversation.
Why The Euro Is So Strong, Or Why The Market
Expects $700bn Of Fed QE3 – ZH
It seems to me that the market bias to buying
EUR in periods of risk appetite can easily disappear if it looks as if European
policymakers have lost control over the euro crisis. I would stress that recent experience suggests that investors do
not care much how the euro zone deals with the tail risk as long as they find a
mechanism for doing so. If not the euro
and the euro zone could easily fall.
TARGET2: Not why Germans should fear a euro
breakup – voxeu.org
Karl Whelan: In recent years, instability
in many European countries has led to large transfers of money into Germany. This in turn has led the
Bundesbank to build up large credits with other central banks in Europe – via the TARGET2 system. Does this
represent a risk to Germany in the event of a breakup of the
euro? This column argues that Germany will have far bigger things to
worry about.
Collapse of the EU a “Realistic Scenario” – Testosterone
Pit
a working group will determine over the next
two weeks—lightning speed by EU standards where progress is measured in months
and often years—how, not if, banks could receive bailout funds directly from
the ESM. Cause for the rush: Spain.
Thirteen Years Later – Mark Grant / ZH
Any notion of what is going on in Europe will not affect America is just as silly as Germany supposing that they will be immune from the effects of the recession in
Europe. That is not the way the world works and that will be proven again
shortly. May 6 may mark the date when the sleeper finally awakens as Greece and France may both vote in such
a manner as to significantly change the political landscape on the Continent.
FiveBooks Interviews: Barry Eichengreen on the
Euro – The Browser
With hindsight, was the euro a good idea? Will
it come through the present crisis intact or will any country decide to leave?
And what happens if they do? All this and more answered by the economics
professor
Presenting The Source Of The "US-Europe
Decoupling" Confusion – ZH
Few good
charts by Morgan Stanley on ECB’s “QE”.
Speech Vítor Constâncio: Shadow banking – The
ECB perspective – ECB
…the establishment of a set of timely data
concerning the repo market would be of key importance for supervisors, central
banks and market participants.
European Crisis: Historical Parallels and
Economic Lessons – Princeton
Big names
in this Inaugural Conference (I listed this previously, but it is so good...)
The euro zone’s rescue fund: Funny money, fuzzy
maths – The Economist
The IMF’s coffers are fuller, but the euro
zone’s “firewall” is still flimsy
Europeans will never accept a federal banking
system – The
Telegraph
Hope springs eternal when it comes to efforts
to save the euro.
It should be easier for unemployed Europeans to
move in search of work.
Almost a year ago, we observed the first crack
in that other fundamental core of the European "union" experiment -
the Schengen visa-free and customs-union zone.
EURO CRISIS: THE AUSTERITY
DEBATE
From Austerity to Growth? – Place
du Luxembourg
Roundup of
recent articles: Indeed, we seem to have
gone from “how do we impose as much austerity as possible to get rid of the
bond vigilantes” to “wait we are not growing, now that’s the new problem… this
stuff isn’t working”.
There are signs of growing dissatisfaction in Europe over the austerity measures pushed
by Germany and other countries to solve the euro-zone debt crisis. But German
editorialists bristle on Thursday at calls to stimulate growth and a proposal
to let the ECB lend directly to banks in trouble.
Turning the Tide on Austerity – Street
Light
The eurozone crisis is and always has been
primarily a balance of payments crisis, not a fiscal crisis. So if we are
finally nearing the end of the disasterous blanket prescription for austerity
as the solution to the eurozone's financial market crisis, that can only be a
good thing.
"Politics Is at the Root of the
Problem" – The
European
Austerity policies are driving us towards a
double-dip recession, warns US economist Joseph Stiglitz. He sat
down with Martin Eiermann to discuss new economic thinking and the influence of
money in politics.
Hey, Not So Fast on European Austerity – NYT
Have they looked at their own numbers? It has
been two years since moves to austerity started, but the crisis is still with
us...Current measures aren’t working. Sooner or later, politicians and citizens
will demand a strategy that does.
The EU budget: no solidarity during austerity – alphaville
/ FT
Earlier this week the European Commission’s
proposed a whooping 6.8 per cent increase for next year’s EU budget. Cue
outrage and fury
.
EURO CRISIS: FRANCE
François Hollande looks very likely to become France’s next president.
What will he bring to the job?
The Socialist who is likely to be the next
French president would be bad for his country and Europe
The Debt Drug: How Long Will Hollande's Party
Go On? – Spiegel
François Hollande is predicted to win France's
presidential election, but his victory could endanger the euro zone's carefully
negotiated fiscal pact. He also wants to water down the European Central Bank's
statutes, forcing it to lend more to promote economic growth. But his plans
would do little more than borrow time -- and they could be very dangerous for Germany.
EURO CRISIS: SPAIN
Sometimes the markets are shockingly
complacent.
Recent developments in the Spanish economy – BIS
Testimony by Mr Miguel Fernández Ordóñez,
Governor of the Bank of Spain, before the
Parliamentary Committee on Budget Affairs, Madrid, 17 April 2012.
Spanish banks: False summit – The Economist
Mark down loans, raise capital, repeat
The banking crisis in Spain has countries across Europe in a deep state of worry. A German
newspaper is now reporting that the European Central Bank and a number of
euro-zone countries would like to change the euro bailout fund in order to
permit it to lend money directly to financial institutions in the throes of the
crisis. Germany, however, is strictly opposed to the idea.
Spanish banks: Name and shame – Economist
Intelligence Unit
Limiting the rescue to the country’s
banks—without also pushing the beleaguered sovereign over the edge—is the best
case scenario for Spain, according to the EIU.
To some, this makes us sound stupid. It is a risk we are willing to take.
I can see bond vigilantes and elite hedge funds
salivating at the prospect that Spain will be the next Greece, but let me
assure you that no matter how bad things are, Spain isn't Greece and
speculators trying to profit off some major Spanish calamity will end up
getting badly burned.
Depression in Spain: Unemployment Rate Up .5
Percentage Points to 23.6%; Expect Much Higher Rates Later This Year; When is
the Breaking Point?
– Mish’s
…Spain has little chance for
growth prospects for a decade as long as it remains in the eurozone. Eventually
will come a time when a politician will hold up a copy of the EMU treaty,
declare it null and void, and the debt null and void right along with it. That
politician will be elected.Spain will be better off as soon as that happens.
The ratings agencies may be behind the market,
but that doesn’t necessarily mean the market’s ahead of the curve, either.
Bailout is
at the end of the playbook.