First some new additions, followed by links from my earlier blog posts. Stuff that I add in the future will go to the bottom of the post. This post is updated as new stuff comes along.
- MoreLiver
Extreme Predictions 2012 – naked capitalism
The comment from the readers are very good.
2012 – leadership wanted, not followership – John Redwood
Trying to make policy and govern by the guiding lights of polls is not a good model. The worst kind of such approaches could best be called followership.
I Just Got Here, but I Know Trouble When I See It – NYT
Six economists (Thaler, Shiller, Mankiw, Frank, Cowen, Romer) give their views
The road ahead: bull & bear case – Humble Student of the Markets
Europe has gone from avoiding the imminent heart attack to a lingering but treatable cancer… I believe that market's focus will shift from Europe to the other regions of the world in 2012.
Words And Phrases I Hope Not To See Or Hear in 2012 – TF Market Advisors
Bazooka, black swan, summits…
Quiet markets as New Year approaches; What to watch in 2012 – Saxo
Thoughts on 2012 – Thomson Reuters
Ten Economic Questions for 2012 – Calculated Risk
Question #9 for 2012: Inflation – Calculated Risk
Question #10 for 2012: Monetary Policy – Calculated Risk
All I want for New Year’s … – Emanuel Derman / Reuters
If you give me a choice, as a scientist or an artist, as to which kind of knowledge I’d like more of, I’ll have more intuition.
2012 will make 2011 look like a picnic – Fintag’s Newsletter
Political Calendar Hints at 2012 Volatility – HistorySquared
Kiron Sarkar’s 2012 forecast – The Big Picture
What Investors Are Thinking About 2012 – Forbes
Additional 2012 Predictions: Trade Wars, US Election, Precious Metals, Energy – Mish’s
EARLIER ON MORELIVER’S
Things that make you go hmmm… – ZH
Doug Kass 15 Surprises of 2012 – EconMatters
Lookback of 2012 from the future by Grant Williams.
Doug Kass 15 Surprises of 2012 – EconMatters
Brace Yourself For An Eventful 2012 – MarketBeat / WSJ
What to expect in 2012 (and stress indicator charts) – Saxo / The Trader
Risk of ECB QE, Greece falling apart, stronger USD, economy and companies slowing down.
My global macro take on 2012... – Veksler’s Forex blog / Saxo
Kass: 15 surprises for 2012 – Pragmatic Capitalism
Mish 2012 Predictions; 2011 Year in Review with Max Keiser – Mish’s
UBS believes 2012 in Europe will not be like 2011 – ZH
Five reasons: ECB’s coming rate cut and QE would hurt the euro, Greece PSI deadline 20-Mar, contagion risk to Portugal and beyond, CDS triggering, voters turning against the europrojects.
Five reasons: ECB’s coming rate cut and QE would hurt the euro, Greece PSI deadline 20-Mar, contagion risk to Portugal and beyond, CDS triggering, voters turning against the europrojects.
My Christmas present to you — short Eurodollars – Peter Brandt
A trade idea and a lot of bullet points on what to expect in 2012.
What to Expect in 2012 – DealBook / NYT
Legal/Regulatory / White Collar Watch
Legal/Regulatory / White Collar Watch
2012 - Things that will happen – Bruce Krasting
predictions from wild & outrageous to common sense & inevitable
A Doomsday View of 2012 – James Petras
All indications point to 2012 being a turning point year of unrelenting economic crises spreading outward from Europe and the US to Asia and its dependencies in Africa and Latin America.
30 big ideas for 2012 and beyond – Fidelity
Cop Logic for 2012 – Interloper
Europe and China are gonna be worse, and ‘cop logic’ dictates U.S. and stocks will follow.
Perspectives - Special edition 2012 – Pictet
Morgan Stanley On Why 2012 Will Be The "Payback" For Three Years Of "Miracles" And A US Earnings Recession – ZH
Think of 2012 as the “payback” year….when many of the extraordinary things that happened over the past 3 years go in reverse. I am talking about incremental fiscal stimulus, a weaker US dollar, positive labor productivity, and accelerated capital spending.
The consensus is right, financials outperform, euro rallies, oil drops below $70/barrel, sovereign default…outside the Eurozone, US 10-year Treasury yields break out, an Italian sovereign upgrade, an E(M)U exit, fewer than five governments switch hands, Britain does great.
Outrageous Predictions – Saxo Bank
The annual out-of-the-box special, read it at the link or see the video or download the pdf
ADDED LATER
2012 Investment Predictions & Outlooks List for – Pragmatic CapitalismHuge list, classified on asset classes.
Vampire Squid Watch: 4 Scary Economic Trends for 2012 – The Big Picture
Euro back-door bailout, political finance, pathological corporate leadership.
The Dismal Outlook for 2012 – The Big Picture
euro, gold, bonds, stocks, China
Prediction Addiction: 2012 Edition – Capital Spectator
Prediction Addiction: 2012 Edition – Capital Spectator
Linked views for major asset classes.
Volatility Outlook 2012 – The Trader
JPM: short skew, short correlation and short convexity bias, as these metrics are all currently expensive.
Nomura: 7 key calls for 2012 – Pragmatic Capitalism
Back to fundamentals in 2012 – Humble Student of the Markets
Question #8 for 2012: Europe and the Euro – Calculated Risk
Nomura: 7 key calls for 2012 – Pragmatic Capitalism
Back to fundamentals in 2012 – Humble Student of the Markets
Question #8 for 2012: Europe and the Euro – Calculated Risk
If the Greek debt deal is reached, and some sort of carrot (growth agenda, eurobond roadmap) is offered to the suffering countries, maybe Europe and the euro will make it through 2012… There is a strong commitment by policymakers to the euro, but at some point, without some perceived carrots, the political consensus will eventually disintegrate, and Europe will come apart.
Question #7 for 2012: State and Local Governments – Calculated Risk
there was a debate last year if there would be a large number of muni defaults in 2011. One analyst predicted "hundreds of billions of dollars' worth of defaults". I disagreed strongly with that prediction, and the total defaults was only a small fraction of that number. With improving finances, the threat of a huge number of muni defaults is even less likely in 2012.
Question #7 for 2012: State and Local Governments – Calculated Risk
there was a debate last year if there would be a large number of muni defaults in 2011. One analyst predicted "hundreds of billions of dollars' worth of defaults". I disagreed strongly with that prediction, and the total defaults was only a small fraction of that number. With improving finances, the threat of a huge number of muni defaults is even less likely in 2012.
It must either immolate itself, accepting a debt union and internal inflation to save a currency it never wanted and doesn't love; or opt instead to uphold fiscal sovereignty and the essence of its own democracy, and let the Project die.
Morgan Stanley Issues Shocker With First 2012 Forecast: Says S&P Will Close Year At 1167, Sees Consensus As Too Optimistic – ZH
Global Bond Issuance To Top A Staggering $8 Trillion In 2012 – ZH
Nice graphs and analysis from S&P and other sources.
Nice graphs and analysis from S&P and other sources.
Will the global economy finally recover in 2012? – The Curious Capitalist / TIME
All of this adds up to a 2012 potentially uglier than 2011. All eyes will remain fixed, first and foremost, on Europe and its debt crisis. The U.S.presidential election and the political turmoil in the Middle East, Russia and elsewhere will also be on watch.
Looking Forward in the New Year: Crowding Out and Hyper-Inflation Watch – Econbrowser
What is the market’s expectation on the inflation outlook.
2012: The Predictable – The Big Picture
All that can be predicted accurately is repeated behavior and trends will continue until some force is impaired on them: Merkozy meet, end-of month & expiry date manipulation, hedge funds crowding in same stocks, deficits increase etc etc.
Look on the bright side of 2012 – alphaville / FT
BoAML lists some positives, as the general mood for 2012 is so dark.
Question #6 for 2012: Unemployment Rate – Calculated Risk
Question #5 for 2012: Employment – Calculated Risk
Question #5 for 2012: Employment – Calculated Risk