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Monday, December 19

19th Dec - Irreversible & Permanent


BCG Analysis. Click pic for larger, read article here
News (Mon evening) – BTH
Recap – GMT
FX option vols – Saxo
Markets Live – alphaville / FT
Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
Europe Crisis Tracker – WSJ

EURO CRISIS
Euro is 'irreversible' and 'permanent', says ECB chiefeuobserver.com
Draghi’s first talk to European Parliament’s economics committee.

Draghi Draghing Down the MarketMarketBeat / WSJ
do not exactly ring with the sound of soaring Money Helicopters:


The carry trade and the goldilocks LTROalphaville / FT
European financials have deteriorated over the last week while the yields on
Spain’s government bonds have been coming in. Is this the result of banks buying up the high yielding bonds that they will soon be able to fund exceptionally cheaply? SocGen, Deutsche and RBC comment.

The ECB's XMas PresentResearch Ahead
More on the LTRO 3 year financing.

Europe’s banking crash has already occurredAsia Times
(Draghi) is warning countries not to leave the Eurozone. The reason for the warning is that it might well happen. A run out of southern European bank assets already has occurred.

Euro area: A rising tide lifts all boatsDanske Bank (pdf)
Euro area most likely in recession, but expect it to be a short one: US recovery, EM growth, inventory build-up, fiscal trouble peaked, finance getting easier.

Europe Must Change Course on BanksPIIE
But there can be no sustainable monetary union without an integrated banking system, which would require an integrated policy framework in compliance with the subsidiarity principle.

Europe Is Now Officially Bazooko's Circus - Italy To Provide €23.5 Billion In IMF Cash To Bailout ItalyZH
As UK decided not to participate, remaining  €150 billion in funding will be collected from Germany €41.5 bn, France €31.4 billion, Italy €23.5 bn and Spain €15 bn – to bail out Spain and Italy.

BCG Presents The One Chart To Explain The Implications Of Leaving The EuroZH
A list of things a country leaving the euro zone would have to do – and what would happen afterwards.

OTHER
Did GLD And Other Gold ETFs Kill Gold Stocks?ZH
Goldman Sachs: ongoing weakness in gold stocks, and the broad decoupling of gold miners from gold price can be attributed to one primary thing: the emergence of synthetic means of expressing a position on the gold market and "bypassing" direct gold cost pass thru exposure in the form of gold stocks.

Goldman's Take On Kim Jong-il's DemiseZH
GS: We do not see much immediate impact on the economy of
South Korea while political uncertainties are rising in the North.