Summary: Dexia has fallen again and it will be split and Belgium acquires other half. Hopefully Dexia will not continue doing more of the same for a third time. Belgium will inject capital to its half and will probably get downgraded later for it – 4bn euros and a 60% guarantee is heavy. France is scared it will be downgraded later when its turn to throw taxpayers’ money to Dexia comes. This was predicted on 6th Aug by Peter Tchir: .
“If France loses its AAA rating, the EFSF doesn’t work as structured.
Any charade that the EFSF isn’t Germany in drag (not a pretty image) would be shattered. The German people would realize that no matter what their politicians are saying,they would be taking on the debt of the PIIGS and be solely responsible for supporting the Euro. I think that will be too much, and the can will not be kicked.”
Any charade that the EFSF isn’t Germany in drag (not a pretty image) would be shattered. The German people would realize that no matter what their politicians are saying,they would be taking on the debt of the PIIGS and be solely responsible for supporting the Euro. I think that will be too much, and the can will not be kicked.”
Still wonder why the French, who probably know their funny little banks better than anyone else, are so anxious to use the EFSF to bail out (French) banks? Germany opposes this, but could just be playing time before the EFSF is ratified. No reason to tell the voters where their money will eventually go.
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| LOL Intesa on Thursday presented how safe they are. |
Meanwhile, Slovakia will vote on Tuesday on the EFSF, and there is resistance in the parliament to the pact –they are having a last-ditch meeting today. Slovaks are the last to ratify the pact, after today’s Malta.
Site: I changed the site design over the weekend. On Friday evening I posted I’d buy that for a dollar with some very good euro links, on Saturday Weekender, my “week in perspective & week ahead” and a new weekly post Best of The Week, just a collection of the week’s highlighted links – good to see if you’ve missed something and perfect for Sunday readings.
The Steve Jobs page has been updated, and you could preorder the coming biography Steve Jobs by Walter Isaacson. Read my and others’ comments on the excellent book Red-Blooded Risk and buy it – you have until G20 meeting to comply. Feedback, inquiries and especially job offers are always appreciated: leave a comment, follow me on Twitter or email me. The MoreLiver's Daily is also now on Facebook. The video is Dustin Farrell's amazing time-lapse of Arizona and Utah skies. Then to the links:
News: Monday Watch (weekend) – Between The Hedges
News That Matters – The Trader
FX options: Vols, Risk Reversals & Pin Risk – tradingfloor.com
TV: Bloomberg, CNBC, BBC World News
Markets Live – alphaville FT
Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
EURO CRISIS
Summary of the report and a pdf-link to full document
Wolfgang Münchau – Eurozone quick-fix will create political monster – FT
It might have worked in 2008. Now 1) the sums are too big 2) nations are not ready to give power over banking to EU 3) non-EMU members (Britain) will block European-wide solutions 4) after mopping-up, original problems of no rules to contain moral hazard remain.
“It's an attempt to use fresh debt to solve the debt crisis. That will never work. But, for me, the main issue is protecting the money of Slovak taxpayers.”
Europe up a creek with no central bank – James Saft / Reuters
If you don’t have a proper central bank you ought to keep debt low. Europe needs a democratic agreement on which way to monetize or write down its debts. Europe suffers from unclear lines of accountability, this is easy to fix, but not quickly.
CHINA
If you’re not scared, you’ve not been properly briefed – A Fistful of Euros
Loan sharks jumping out of windows and Albert Speer’s son designing a German suburb outside Shanghai. Really.
OTHER
A Curated Linkfest For The Smartest People On The Web – Simoleon Sense
Deer in the Headlights, Financially Speaking – NYT
Behavioral fin granddaddy Thaler on inaction, what causes it and what it leads to.
Synchronicity, Instant Messaging and Performance among Financial Traders – aleablog.com
arxiv-paper states that traders acting in synchronicity with others and messaging information of their actions to others perform better.
A Nonevent that Made Stock Prices Soar – Turnkey Analyst
Interesting short summary of a research paper on the time it takes for information to be fully priced. Oh yes, the source is very important as well.
#OWS
Panic of the Plutocrats – Krugman / NYT
“the real extremists here are America’s oligarchs, who want to suppress any criticism of the sources of their wealth.”
On #OWS and the Power of Open Source and Consensual Processes – naked capitalism
#OWS Publishes First Issues of “The Occupied Wall Street Journal” – naked capitalism
Parsing the Data and Ideology of the We Are 99% Tumblr – Rortybomb
We are the 99 percent – tumblr.com
Slavoj Žižek Speaks to Occupy Wall Street – The New York Observer
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| Read more and buy it |
DIVERSION
Richard Feynman, the late physicist, is hero of new graphic novel – WP
300-page graphic novel biography of Feynman. Strong buy. Buy here!
Whitey in exile – Boston Globe
James “Whitey” Bulger, the gangster got caught after 16 years on the run. Here’s how he was caught.
Personal technology at work: IT’s Arab spring – The Economist
Young (and increasingly old people as well) accustomed to technology want to use their own tools, and cannot understand the low quality of enterprise systems. IT departments are facing a challenge to their authority.
Grilled Chicken, That Temperamental Star – NYT
Filming food for advertisements is hard work, filled with dirty tricks. You think those are real ice cubes floating in the glass of cola. Think again.
Self-Serve – Futility Closet
In 1990, weary of repetitive interviews, Phillies pitcher Don Carman posted this list of responses on his locker. “You saw the game,” he told reporters. “Take what you need.”