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Tuesday, September 20

20th Sep Extra - IMF reports, eat my shorts


Summary: Varied headlines from cooked up Greek stats,  CDS intervention, copper as a leading indicator for China, and then standard Fed watch and Greek misery. IMF reports came out, but nobody cares. Instead, leave a comment, follow me on Twitter or email me. UBS rogue trader updated


Today's Headlines – Between The Hedges

FX options 20th Sep 12:30 GMT
Vols, Risk Reversals & Pin Risk – tradingfloor.com

EURO CRISIS

coming payments for PIIGS

TH Market Advisors’ Tchir reminds that the market did not bottom until 6 months after the “Lehman moment.” Today everyone knows Greece will default, but markets take their time to drop.

On the Bank of China’s move to close swap lines with some eurobanks

Germany has been leading the opposition in the European Union to any write-down of troubled eurozone members’ sovereign debt. That is wrong.
The Consequences of Angela Merkel – Project Syndicate

Ex-finmin of Greece says Eurobonds should not be dismissed.
Decision Time for the Eurozone – Project Syndicate

Banks are going to get deeper into trouble.

TH Market Advisors’ Tchir: CDS intervention?

Interview from 15th, published today

Greece
“We find that the data reported by Greece shows the greatest deviation from Benford's law among all euro states.”



FINANCIAL CRISIS

Twist coming, says GS


Weakness in copper prices interesting, as Chinese have used warehoused copper for debt collateral, estimated amounts $7-10 billion. Bruce suggests watching copper price as a leading indicator of a funding problem in China.
Red Alert on the Red Metal? – Bruce Krasting

IMF
Commentaries on the WEO/IMF, second is nasty.
Mind the forecast error – Free exchange / The Economist